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   Gay Rights Debates
     SJC on Goodrich predictions
       Mass SJC: Who's who & who's where on gay marriage case

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homaffectional

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From what I gather, this is what we're looking at (but keep in mind this is not a prediction by any means so quote me all you like, but don't hold me accountable)

Before the Ontario Appeals & Lawrence decisions it was still a likelihood that gay marriage would be legalized - however, it was most likely because there would have been a 3-2 decision with 2 abstensions. Someone more familiar with the Massachusetts constitution would probably have to explain to me if it's possible to have a "majority" that is not really a "majority" according to the Mass. state constitution.

Since the Ontario Appeals decision and especially Lawrence, a new scenario is emerging. This is what I would have predicted in general if all justices voted either way and chose not to abstain:

There are 3 yes votes for sure: Chief Justice MARSHALL, IRELAND, & SOSMAN

2 no votes for sure: COWIN & CORDY

One swing that will side with the majority & thus really depends on the votes of the others, especially the "only real swing" (See below):  GREANEY

The only real swing: SPINA





However, I'm thinking that Greaney may actually step outside of his usual modus operandi and be a crucial decision maker precisely because of the Canada legal precedent. He may side with the "yes" faction and thus eliminate any chance of the number of "no" votes even including abstentions being the majority over the # of "yes" votes. So perhaps the delay turned out to be a good thing after all. We'll see come the morning of the decision...

(Edited by homaffectional 7/24/2003 at 01:10 AM).
 


Posts: 1 | Posted: 01:09 AM on July 24, 2003 | IP
    
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